Week 16-19

Got away from me…

4 Weeks is too long between updates!  Week 16 started on 1/21, the week of the All Star Break.  For time, I’m going to touch on performances and position over that stretch rather than individual matchups.  If you feel you performed well in one particular week, feel free to pat yourself on the back.  With that said, the playoff picture has taken form, lots of trades, teams have been eliminated from contention, and playoffs have started early for some.  Let’s dive in.

Eliminated

Believe it or not, only 3 teams have been mathematically eliminated this season.  The bottom two, Wes and Elm, had no change in position over the timespan.  I’ve spoken to Wes, and he asked me to extend an apology to you guys for his participation this season.  He relayed that he did think about returning later in the season but thought better of it to not potentially screw someone late in the year.  As we spoke about months ago, Wes’s dues were waived this year (he tried to pay me multiple times).  He said he’s excited to play next season.

Elm on the other hand contacted me last week and has in fact decided to relinquish his team.  I’m not sure how many of you know, but Elm recently got a new job back in Pittsburgh but travels 95% of the time for work and his fiancé.  He’s been too busy and hasn’t made it a priority.  I spoke with a few of you about this and we are currently looking for another owner, with a couple heads in mind.  Please send me anyone you believe would be a good fit.  I’m going to compile a list and touch on it at a later date.  As of right now, consider anyone on Elm’s team frozen pending a new owner.

The most recent team eliminated, Radical finished the span falling 2 slots to 10th in the league, 23 points out of the bubble.  Jersh was very active at the deadline; involved in 3 trades this year, shipping: Crosby, Kessel, Binnington, a 10th, 12th, 13th, and 16th, for return: Lundqvist, Klingberg, a 7th, two 8ths, and a 12th.  This is simultaneously the most anyone’s traded in a season as well as tried to move up the draft order.  Look to him as a litmus test selling for next season.  I suspect it will be of large impact.  Rad got significantly younger this year and was able to put together a nice core that could last a while.  Posturing at its finest.

All But Out

Given the nature of our scoring system, 20 point pickups being possible, Jason and Draper are not yet mathematically eliminated, but hope is not advised.  Draper picked up 1 spot in the standings over the span and was not active at the deadline.  This being his first season in our league, it was truly trial by fire from the draft forward.  He took some lumps, but wasn’t discouraged and is looking forward to next season.  Draper took 47/80 points during this stretch and has been active consistently trying to win through the end of the season.  Not only a hats off to him, but I’d also like to note that this is exactly what we’re looking for in a head to fill Elm’s shoes. 

 Jason finds himself in in 8th, 14 points out of the bubble, picking up 24/80 points.  Sako, who was in 1st place 10 weeks ago, had an incredibly rough mid-season run winning just 1 week in the last 12.  That 6-3 win against Elm, dropping 2-8 in the last two weeks.  In the last 4 weeks, Jay did see his skaters’ production fall off hard, losing 1/5th of his average Goal production and 1/4th of his average Assist production, consistently power ranked 10th in each of those weeks.  This directly affected this PPP production, while simultaneously running into goaltending woes.  With no movements at the deadline, Jay seems confident enough in his core to put field a serviceable team next season, but has definitely packed it in.

On the Bubble

The bubble is tight, with Evan sitting uncomfortably 1 point in front Barbs.

B fell 2 slots to 7th over the stretch, taking 34/80 points and finishing with a 1-9 L to Doebler.  With the writing on the wall, Z sold at the deadline sending Landeskog and a 9th to Caruso for a fresh off IR Ehlers and a 3rd.  Although a seller, the stage is set for Barbs to ruin Evan’s previously ruined and now not ruined season.  That same span saw Evan leap 3 places in the standings landing in 6th, the first time he’s been in a playoff position all year.  Although ragged on earlier in the season for his inconsistent performance, Evan started the season 2-17-1 and ate away at his deficit to finish last week 8 wins over 500.  He was able to take 58/80 points in that time, second only to Lantz’s 67 (holy shit).  The road to the playoffs is not paved for either of these two however as Evan meets Jim and Barbs meets TK in Week 20 making this a pseudo playoff game for both.  These are the two matchups to watch this week, as of right now, neither’s looking great.  At this rate, I’m not sure taking the seed can be considered a win.  Both need to improve if they want a long playoff run.

Clinched Berth

Lantz, TK, Jim, Doebs, and Caruso have all clinched a playoff berth this season, and in that order.  Caruso, slotted in 5th, has a 21 point buffer on Evan.  An 11 point span covers the top 5 slots, 6 points the largest cushion being held by Lantz sitting comfortably in 1st.  Lantz scooped a whoping 84% of possible points in the last 4 weeks, 17 points more than his nearest conference neighbor launching him 4 positions in the standings to the throne.

Although TK looks to take the top spot, 6 points shy of Lantz, he has more pressing concerns in Doebler, 4 points back and coming off a 9-1 Victory, and Caruso, 5 points back and mortgaging a keeper slot next year to pick up heavy guns.  Can TK take enough points from Barbs for peace of mind?

With 2nd place intangible for Jim, he eyeballs Lantz with 7 points to carve.  Given that’s quite a large gap for a Lantz trending upward, consideration for round 1 posturing comes to mind.  Jim picked up 50/80 over the span, shaded by wins large wins against Rad and Wes.  If all holds true, does Jim stand a better chance against a risking Evan or two teams that just retooled?  I smell a trap.  On the other hand, Barbs could limp into 6th handing Jim a quasi bye.  Regardless, he’s comfortably in position and only good can come in Week 20.

Doebler and Caruso both bought at the deadline.  Doebler finding meat in Kessel and Josi from Rad, Caruso picking up a top 5 skater Landeskog with a large price.  Jagz ended Week 16 as the conference leader, but found hard times against Rad and Caruso before bouncing back in a 9-1 victory over a Barbs.  Caruso seems content to sit in a lower wildcard spot, but will his late acquisition make an impact? Zaj and Krut picked up 48 and 45 points respectively, and are definitely ranked mid-tier.  One of them needs to pull out a large win this week, or it seems they’ve found their Round 1 playoff matchup.  Should be a barn burner, the memes will be entertaining.

Last week of the season yinz, finish strong,

Week 15

Hey everyone, sorry again for the off week.  The past few times I’ve thrown a blurb together it’s taken me an hour or two so I’ve been selfishly procrastinating.  With that said, there was a lot of movement this week, so let’s dive in.

Completing Week 15 marks the entrance into the final quarter of the season.  To go along with that, I want to remind everyone that the trade deadline is Feb 21st, so you have 1 more month to make any moves.  Week 16 is an extended week lasting through Feb 3rd, bisected by the All-Star Break.  Also, please please please send me your dues if you are still outstanding and haven’t contacted me with a date to do so.  I really should have all of them by now and don’t want to have to be the bad guy.

Evan and Draper’s matchup proved to be a bit uneventful.  The bout between the bottom barrel teams showed a marginal victory for Evan, coming short of the Shitty Predictor’s 7-3 projection.  As we move further into the season, both teams are solidifying their place at the bottom of the totem pole, both dealing with the conundrum of how to properly tank in a fantasy league without benching the entire squad.  Still, with neither of these two owners making a sale as of yet, there is still time to further their cause and pick up draft picks for future staff.  The question remains, is there even meat on the bone?

Barbs appears to have seized his opportunity to snag some points from Elm this past week.  With a 7-3 victory, B picked up 14 points to push himself into the playoff conversation to tie Lantz for 6th place, slipping Rad and stiff arming Sako in the process.  Given his Week 16 matchup against George, the door is open for him to create the cushion he needs as he closes out the season with collisions into Lantz, Jagz, and TK.  Barbs has been openly active on the trade market, dangling one John Gibson on the block with yet to find a dance partner with a scoring winger.  The time still remains to deal, but the clock is ticking.  Tough decisions ahead while sitting near the bubble.

Speaking of Rad and Jason, Phil’s New Haircut proves to be a fresh one at that, with Josh taking the 6-3 W.  To Jason’s credit, neither of them performed poorly or stellar, but with time running out, Rad seems to have relegated Jay out of a wildcard position where Sako was sitting in 1st place only 6 weeks ago.  While Rad can take solace in his victory, his 13 point pickup outpaced Barbs and Lantz only slightly, closing his deficit from 10 points down to 7.   With 5 weeks remaining, it’s very possible for him to slip into a playoff position, but after being neutered by shipping Crosby, it remains to be seen whether he should wheel his newfound currency or continue the garage sale.

Zaj hits new heights, seizing 18 points last week.  Although against George, I wouldn’t write off the take just yet.  Doebler posted a number 1 Power Rank for the week with an Index of 91, not shabby at all.  What’s more, Doebler has been in the top two performers 5 of the last 7 weeks, and in the top 5 every week through that same stretch.   Sitting in 3rd place, 2 points back from 1st and a 12 point cushion from danger, Doebler is a near shoein for the playoffs, and the way his team is performing, I’d mark him as a favorite to take the conference lead in the weeks ahead; especially given his weaker opponents in front of him.  Doebler looks to further his cause this in Week 16 as he squares off with a wounded Draper, but I imagine he’s looking forward to his Week 18 matchup with Caruso for King Shit.

Speaking of shit, Terd Ferg and Jimbob ended with a split pot last week.  While neither was able to gain any momentum in the standings, their mutual pigeon hold allowed everyone around them to outpace.  Lantz continues to sit on the bubble while Jim is sitting comfortable in 2nd place, top of his conference with a 10 point lead on Barbs, his only conference competition.  Jim’s 13 point cushion is enough for him to take a couple good shots without fear of losing his first round bye, whereas Lantz is living on the edge.  Lantz has a mixed bag ahead as he faces Caruso this week, however can look forward to meetings with George and Elm to round off his season.  Although on the bubble, I imagine his spirits are high and expectations set.

I had no intention of saving the Tom matchup for last, however this week proved to be a very large one for Kelly and Caruso.  First off, this was a nail biter that ended in dramatic upset.  Although Kelly took a 9-1 shellacking, it was only a few points away from being a minor 6-4 upset, and was a cointoss through Saturday.  Caruso pocketed his 18 points, simultaneously dethroning TK and taking his place.  While this is a large upset, the larger story points to TK coming back down to earth, placing the conference lead into a 3 way race between TK, Caruso, and Doebinski.  What more, Caruso relied on his goaltending to get the job done, meanwhile trading Matt Murray and a 14th to TK for Huberdeau and a 9th, seriously strengthening his rival.  Caruso indeed foreshadowed his own misfortune, but had no intention of such a large upset and will now have an even larger decision to make; what to do with his newfound position, certainly krutting it up.  Although TK took a large L this week, he faces Elm and Draper in the oncoming weeks with only Rad, Jim, and Barbs standing a chance of thwarting growth.  Meanwhile Caruso meets Lantz and Jim back to back.  One thing’s for certain, the next 5 weeks spell gunshow for the Evens Conference.  Who will spoil the fun?

Again, reminder that Week 16 is in fact an extended week and to please make good on dues asap.

Thanks guys, gl;hf.

Weeks 10-13

Alright everyone, so I got a little lazy during the holidays; and I’m going to continue being lazy this week by giving you an abridged summary of the last three weeks with some highlights.

Before I dive into the standings, please note, the trade deadline is Thursday, February 21st and lands halfway through week 19, 10 days shy of playoffs.  I believe this is the same setting we had last year and we did not alter it to move in line with the shortening of the season.  I don’t want to move it now, but I think it’d be a decent point of discussion for next year and I’ll be noting to bring it up in the offseason.

Looking at the overall standings, there are 3 major groupings taking form.

Probable Sellers:

Evan, after having an early season of turmoil bouncing all over the performance chart, has ultimately decided to become consistently subpar, with an average power ranking of 9 across the last three weeks.  His goaltending being the pain point, as he managed to post only 4 wins in the last three weeks with a .898 in that same timespan. 22 points out of a playoff spot with 7 weeks remaining is quite the hill to climb.  Although he’s temporarily shed his “will he, won’t he” persona, Evan performed 13% under his league average and I wouldn’t expect that to last.  Watch out for him to ruin someone’s season.

Draper, just barely outpacing Aloe, is sitting 21 points out of a playoff spot.  The last time we took a deeper look at draper, he was merely 20 points out of a playoff spot with 10 weeks remaining.  Given his inherited team with a weak constitution, he should probably entertain offers as he looks forward to the following season, especially given he has the hardest schedule through the rest of the season, still to see another run in with TK, Jim, Jason, and Rad.

Jelm, homie.  Although sitting in a cool 9th place, Elm is still stationed 19 points out of the bubble.  I decided to dig more into his squad to understand what the malfunction could be, to find a mere 6 Moves completed on the year.  Not to say this is the driving force behind performance, although I believe it is, however the closest bubble player in Lantz has 46 moves on the year.  Not unlike a good portion of the league, Elm has been subject to goaltending woes, with save totals less than 100 in 2 of the last 3 weeks, with skaters performing consistently in the upper third of competitors, just not able to compensate.

Bubble Boys:

Lantz has honestly become my subject of interest this year.  Although tied with Barbs, 4 points out of a playoff spot, they each sport a power ranking of 1 and 2 respectively.  Save percentage and +/- being his only true weaknesses, I find it surprising he hasn’t been able to lift himself to relevance.  That said, he performed 15% under his average performance the last three week, still posting 2 marginal wins.  Not even down, certainly not out.  Lantz has my money to pull it out and make the playoffs.  The question being, is he strong enough to make a run.

Barbs, par for the course, can’t seem to catch a break.  Similar to Lantz’s power situation, Barbs had a bad string of weeks, however managed to split the last two weeks 5-5 against Jim and Rad, no slouches.  If you haven’t given his team a glance, you should.  Especially at his goaltending corp of Gibson, Fleury, Rittich and Hutchinson for the number one goaltending corp, and it’s not even close.  He posts an average of 190 Saves per week with a .918 Save Percentage through the year.  That’s where the fun stops however.  Short of his body bangers posting ridiculous hit totals, his skating categories are on or below average this year.  Could he recover and make a run with the proper pickup?  It’d have to be a hefty piece in my opinion.  Possibly relinquishing some of those prized goaltenders.  He can’t keep them all, and at the very least, there will be 3 tasty net minders to pick up in the draft.

Doebler has been a pleasant surprise this year.  The Jagz tribute has proven a few times this season he deserves to be in the playoff conversation with big wins over TK in Week 11 (7-3) and… that’s it actually.  Don’t let me pull the veil over your eyes however, Zark has the number 1 rated offense in the league this year, hampered only by his +/-, Hits, and Blocks.  In fact, I’d go as far as to say if he was able to compensate even marginally in those areas, I think he’s the scariest team in the league.  He has the Season high for Goals, Assists, PPP, and Saves, and has been tickling those totals consistently throughout the year.  I don’t expect him to ruin anyone’s season, but with a few clutch pickups, Dobby is primed to dethrone a conference leader and relegate them to the masses.  Keep an eye on your tins.  Zarg sits directly on the bubble; sounds sexual, but idk.

Caruso, feels weird by referencing himself in the third person but continues to do it anyway for optics.  Tom, as in seasons past, can’t seem to find his identity.  Each season positioned on the bubble as we enter the fourth quarter of the season, he neither looks poised to make a move or to drop out but rather seems destined for mediocrity, with shining moments only in decent Goal and Shot production.  Again, he will need to decide whether to make a move and try to go for a run or sell off and look towards the new season.  In the past two seasons, he bought and lost in the conference finals.  Maybe he’ll switch it up this year.  Tom is currently sitting 1 point over Doebler with TK, Jim, and Rad on the schedule ahead.  This week’s matchup against Wes could be the false hope he needs to make a terrible decision prior to the deadline.

Radical, King of the Bubblonians, is currently sitting 2 points above danger yet only 6 points shy of one SakoPath.  Rad, as is tradition, continues to post stellar shooting categories, and even managed to have a positive +/-, quite the rarity for high scoring teams.  His sacrifice in Hits and Blocks is noted, however he also seems to lack a bit of goaltending, with number just shy of average.  While performing 12% under his season performance over the last three weeks, Rad still managed to pull a 7-3 win against Elm and 6-4 against Evan, seemingly rolling poorly at the right time.  By now everyone should be aware of the trade between Josh and Baric, seeing Jim pick up one Sidney J. while sending Josi and a 7th rounder to Rad.  I have to admit, I’m a bit perplexed.  There’s nothing inherently wrong with this trade, but the timing is a bit befuddling. Rad seems willing to give up a portion of his scoring production to snag a very high draft pick in the coming season.  This comes at a time where he jumped 4 spots in the rankings.  Does he have an Ace in the hole, or is he planning for his future.  One thing is for certain, he’s gotten out ahead of the trade deadline to seize the opportunity and turn gold into cash.  It’s gotta be painful to let go of generational talent, thankfully he has one McDoogle and Petterererson to keep him comfort.  Look for Rad to make additional moves or toil as we near the trade deadline.

Buyers: 

Without question, Jason has put forward a rather strong season as is evident by his current standings, but with that said, where is he trending.  In the last 6 weeks Jason has posted a 25-28-7 record, with his ties keeping him afloat.  In fact, a 9-0 victory over Evan and a 8-2 victory over Draper seem to be his only real takes of the year with a season power ranking of 5 placing him just about where he should be in the standings.  Jason’s been the recipient of bad tiebreakers in the past.  Sitting in 4th with an 8 point cushion, he seems well positioned for a playoff berth.  With a couple of moves and a little spit shine, I wouldn’t be surprised if he snakes the conference lead and first round bye from Baric, but he certainly has his work cut out for him.

This truly has been a season of retribution for Jim.  As the standings currently lay, Jim is by far the most improved owner this year with by far the largest Elo improvement of the season; he’s injected himself in to the conversation, and with force.  In the last 3 weeks, he saw his 8 week winning streak brought to an end by, your very own, Adoebler.  He followed up his defeat by tumbling again to Sako, and ultimately tying Barbs in Week 13.  Even with his short stint of disappointment, Jim performed nearly on average with his season totals the past three weeks.  This prompted me to look further and find that it was not his performance that faltered, but rather he ran into high performers in Jay and B, power ranked 2nd and 1st in their respective weeks.  Even his matchup against Doebler, he outperformed him, yet not in the correct categories with a fair amount of wasted stat gain.  After speaking with him, I know he’s anxious to grip the ledge that is a first round bye and Jason at his heels, however his future continues to be bright with future matchups against Wes and Evan to round out the end of his season.  To make matters more interesting, those two matchups sandwich his meeting with TK, quite possibly Jason’s only hope of taking the conference.  Jim made quite the pickup from Rad, purchasing Crosby for a decent amount of his future.  Will Jim’s all-star skating stats be able to compensate for his lack of goaltending?

A League of their Own: 

TK has undeniably had a pretty stellar season.  His only loss this season? 3-7 to James Baric.  As the story lines begin to write themselves, I plopped TK into a category all his own.  He’s has a 19 point cushion on the bubble, 8 points over second place, coming off GWBye Week.  The last three week saw him improve 43 points and 2 spots in the standings to be the defacto front runner.  I’d say he has a bullseye on his back, but more aptly someone has placed a cowbell around his neck to warn of his raging bull demeanor.  What’s more perplexing is his stats aren’t out of control, he seems to be hitting big when he needs it, in lockstep with his opponents.  Not always amazing, but always better, he seems to always be precise, even if his accuracy needs work.   His season power ranking of 9 is hollow, and should be more indicative of his prowess as a manager, not leaning on the performance of his players so much as manipulating them to his will with marginal victories, making every point count.  I honestly don’t know what to think.  It should also be noted that in the last three weeks, an 8-2, 6-3, and 7-3 run proved TK to eclipse both Jason and Lantz to take the top Elo spot in the league.  He faces off against Evan this week, then bellows into the mid-tier machine in the back quarter of the season.  I have no reason to believe he’ll have issue.  For that matter, I’m not sure I’d even expect a move out of him near the deadline.   Hats off to a season well done, thus far.