Week 2

Week 2

Another week in the books buds, cooked and medium rare.  Aaron and Wes continue to stir the Elo pot, and early season troubles see chinks in the armor of perennial elites.  Gleaning for company, I want to see some blood.

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Matchups

The week’s top performance goes to Barbs and the APUCKS LEGENDS, sporting a 77 Index and posting a 7-3 win against the defending champion, beating Shitty Predictors (SP) 5-5 split.  Barbs saw a decent uptick in performance from last week, sporting top marks across all three goaltending categories and playing second fiddle in PPP to only Jagz.  Barbs 14 point take was enough meet Wes and Aaron for a 3 way tie for first in our teething season.  He looks on to Lantz in the coming week.  Jim moves on to Caruso; licking his wounds may spell for a rebound with an SP outlook of victory in the week of 3: 7-1.  Barbs 8.8 elo pickup was 12% favorable to the week’s average and slots him 6th overall as he appreciates to the upper 50. 

The top point get this week however belongs to Jagz and the Argonauts, issuing an 8-1 pounding to Sakopath and his early season woes.  Zackary’s 17 point loot justified by a 74 Index vs Jason’s 30 saw him take top marks in Goals, +/-, and PPP for an 8.5 elo pickup.  The 2nd ranked offense thus far this season, looks forward to jousting Draper in Week 3: SP’s 6-4 spells additional appreciation for Jagy’s future.  Jason is poised to face Jim in the coming week.  Hopefully he can find a new toy to uproot his 12th ranked offensive core.

Not intending to bury the lead, Aaron dropped his meat and to veg on the table once more this week, doling a 7-3 loss to TK and Pengu Fallen.  Aaron’s 61 Index only a half-step back from last week’s performance was good enough for a 10.9 elo swipe as Teek’s squad seems to be finding the back of the net by quantity over quality, Goals and Shots saving him from further loss.   Tk’s 47 Indexed performance is nothing to dust off the shoulder, but rather ran into Aarons hot hand for a swift slap to the face.  TK looks to bounce back this coming week against Kuchy, but SP’s 4-5 prediction reads stagnant.  Aaron on the other hand seeks his next victim in Radical; will the onslaught continue?  SP seems to think so, outlining a 5-3 skirt in Week 3.

Rad Dad bounced back this week with a 5-4 slip past J Drape.  The 3 elo take was marginal given the rollover from last year’s performance for both of these franchises, and fits the bill for Rad and Drapers 33 and 21 power ranked performances respectively.  The week felt more like a push for both of these heads as they have room for growth and retooling.  Here’s to hoping one of them can find their feet.

Caruso and Evan’s matchup proved to be as expected as Tom’s 6-4 finish failed to meet SP’s expectation of 6-3, for a 1 elo point pickup on the week.  Tom can take solace in his 58 Indexed performance, a decent uptick from last week but should be disappointed to not take more from Evan’s 31 Index on the week.  Caruso’s 2nd ranked goaltending bailed him out of a bad situation and Evan’s lower 50 performance thus far this season sports only 4 categories above league average.  Both teams should have bought some regen for the laning phase.  Evan butts heads with a wounded TK this week, where Keek’s boys look to rob Jim, currently abroad on his honeymoon.  Strike while the iron’s hot as they say.

Finally, the 5-4 finish of Wes and Lantz’s matchup was deceptively corrective to the Elo makeup of the league.  Given Wes’s leave of absence left his Elo at an all time low last season, and Lantz ended the season at an all time high, this week’s 10 point swing saw the total range reduced to 135 on a 32 point basis.  Again a testament to Lantz’s prior seasons’ performance, he still tops the charts for the league despite the two week skid, where Wes still has 43 points to makeup before he hands off the dunce hat.  SP spells a 6-4 win for Wes on Sako in Week 3, and a 4-6 loss for Lantz at Barbs, but don’t sleep on him.  Despite early season woes, Lantz holds a 54 Index on the season power ranked 5th overall.  Looks to see him upset one Draper or Caruso in the coming weeks as they sit on hollow thrones.

 

Commissioner’s Note

Good week yinz.  Please keep those dues coming in if you have not yet.  I’ve said it at the draft and the past two weeks now, but no one has contacted me about dues and we’re still 6/12.  Hollar at me.

Additionally, a concerned manager contacted me this week regarding parity and our league’s future with reference to past and future performance of inherited and expansion teams.  Although a bit ironic given the turmoil of the first couple weeks this year, as we move forward I’m going to continue keeping my eye on each of your squads performance over the past few seasons leading into this years activity.  As our core of managers becomes more concrete, it may behoove us to focus on parity and assure that our squads don’t become stale as part of the fun in enjoying fantasy sports is the fresh look of each new season and knowing this could be the year regardless of prior performance.  I have parity schemes from keeper contract to full redrafts in my repertoire that we can explore if more managers express concern.  I’m happy to listen to all inquiries, so again hit me up if you have some input you’d like heard or toss it in the groupme for general discussion.  We’re 10% of the way through the season already.  Stay fly dudes.

Week 1

Gents, we’re fuckin back.  Man, that was a long offseason.  I don’t know about you, but I was itching in August.  I forgot how long it takes me to flip the model over to a new season, so this week’s blurb is going to be the shorter end as I get back into the swing of things.  I noticed quite a few management mistakes this week, myself included, as we get back into season form, but with that said, Week 1 is in the books and we’re stirring the pot.  Let’s dig.

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Matchups

First off, a big welcome to the league to Aaron.  For those of you that don’t know, Aaron hails from the Burgh and attended Pitt with Evan, send flowers accordingly.  CptnBigDick took little time to adjust, smacking the blunt out of Lantz’s mouth in a 6-4 victory on the extended week.  What’s more, Aaron sported a 69 Index on the week, topping both Lantz and the Power Rankings for the start of the season sporting top 3 marks in Sv%, PPP, SOG, Hits, Goals, and top of the charts in Assists and Blocks (yikes).  Fluke or Fortuna, need not apply, Aaron sporting the Elo ruins of Elm, snaked 10.8 points.  Elo will continue to be a dumpster fire as Aaron and Wes regress to their true rank over the coming weeks.  Clutch those pearls and white knuckle to the bubble.  For those concerned, Lantz has indeed dusted off the L and put it back in his mouth, where it belongs.

Speaking of Wes, a big welcome back to the sleeping giant.  George picked up right where he left off, handing a 6-3 L to Rad’s Kobayashi Maru; a true test in difficulty as he works to balance out this year’s roster in rebuild efforts.  Wes snuck 9.4 Elo away from his 54 Index performance with top marks in Goals, +/-, and Shots.  He had 29 goals; what the fuck.  It’s hard to really blame Rad’s performance with a 47 Index, top marks in PPP and Sv%.  Look for Radical to bounce back in Week 2’s matchup against J Drape.

Draper and Sako split the baby in half this week, finishing 5-5 and relative indices of 28 and 44.  It seems Jay racked up some wasted stats to break even on the week and there was relatively no elo exchange as these two jack russels sit in the middle of the pack.  Draper has his work cut out for him next week against Wes, as does Jason setting his eyes on Doebz.

Zaj proved to be marginally Lesser than Bettman this week, as Caruso edged a 5-4 victory over Zeek.  Candidly, Zarg did fight his way back from a 7-3 deficit heading into Sunday and stole Sv% on the last fucking shot of the week.  Even so, it was all but sunshine for the boys as they both posted Indices under 40 with little Elo exchange.  Both need to shake off the early season jitters and get their shit together.  Outside of Doebler’s Save total, nothing much to write home about in this matchup.

 Barbs, who takes an opportunity every season to shame one person in the league with his name, has decided to reciprocate and shit on as many as possible.  This week’s loser was TK as B dished a 6-4 finish into the books.  What could be worse than Barbs 10th ranked .894 Sv%? You guessed, TK’s 12th ranked .878.  With that said, Barbs through the spaghet at the wall for goaltending this week, finishing with 336 Saves, the most in league history.  Barbs and Teek both finished with index ratings sub 50 with 5 Elo finding its way to Barbs on the exchange.  Lots of room for improvement, but situations could be worse.  They are poised to take on Jim and Aaron in Week 2 respectively.

Last but certainly not least, last season’s champion, Jimbo gave it to Evan Right in the Kuch (I’m going to get a lot of mileage out of this) this week with a 6-4 decisive victory.  Both Jim and Evan sported a 54 Index on the week, displaying a tight matchup with marginal Victories in Hits and Goaltending Wins favoring Jimmy.  Evan looks in preseason form as Jim’s -12 rating still ravaged Evan’s -20 performance.  Jim still has yet to receive possession for the trophy after last year’s win by neglect from our commissioner so buy him a beer if you ever do see him, and maybe ask him how his wedding was (congrats dirt!).  I’m fairly certain we at least bought the centerpieces with our generous league donation.

Wrap-up

Good Week 1 dudes, keep it rollin.  I think this is a pretty poopy blurb, but it’s my first time writing about Week 1 where I normally have months of performance and matchups to lean on.  Thanks to everyone that got their dues to me already.  If you haven’t yet, please get them to me asap or send me a groupme about it so I can keep it tight.  Let’s set a record this year for getting all dues before mid-season, I beg of you.

Week 20

B’s in; Aloe falls. The season came to an end in style, with major shifts in the standings yielding a bracket we did not anticipate.  Let’s dive in.

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Season Results

With both Barbs and Evan beginning their post season one week early, the focus was surely on their matchups.

The Nutt Butters had their work cut out for them squaring off against Crosby and the Barics for their tournament life.  In turn, it was a dark week for Dark Wing Duck.  Jim posted a 9-1 victory sporting an 87 Index, taking the top spot in this week’s Power Rankings.  Evan’s 42 Indexed performance was 7% under his season average with multiple injuries.  Of this, “Haha, I think that week perfectly captured my year”, said Aloe. “My team has the components to be a dominant force, but with Karlsson and Byfuglien out, I never stood a chance”.

With an 18 point pickup, Jim put up the numbers he wanted, but was stonewalled by Lantz’s parallel victory over the Ruins de Elmo, locking Jim out of a conference lead while securing the first round bye for himself.  I reached out to Lantz, replied “no comment”.

Albeit a tame result, Barbs and TK’s matchup became the linchpin for dramatic delta at the top of the house.  With a 1 point deficit to cover, B looked to pocket whatever he could while TK needed points to maintain his round 1 bye amidst a hungry Doebler and Caruso.  Barbs led from behind as his netminders posted an impressive 6 Win with .954 SV%, stealing minor victories in Assists, +/-, and PPP.  With Evan’s folly, Barbs more than covered his spread, taking the final wildcard spot for the year.  Tom’s 10 point take leaving him moderately exposed.

Doebler posted a similar performance against Jay this week, stealing 11 points for the war effort.  Coming into the week, Doebler sat 4 points behind TK for the conference lead.  His performance was not enough to cover the spread, however while in no danger of falling to 6th, this week proved to be a non-event in the life of Zaj as he just waited to find his post season dance partner.  Jason’s deficit was not enough to further his draft aspirations, but as we transition into the post reason he gets some extra time to spend with his new son.  Congrats again!

Caruso really needed a big win this week for it to make any impact on his post season matchups.  A neutered Rad opposite his corner, he found the juice necessary to squeeze an 8-2 victory on the week posting a 69 Index.  Coming into the week, Tom was 5 points back of TK for the conference lead while holding the trump card for the tiebreaker as he was (14-6) in heads up matches between the Toms this season.   The 16 point take was enough to propel him 3 spots in the standings to steal the first round by from TK in a photo finish, dramatically increasing his post season chances of recovering capital.  It should be noted his bypass of Jim due only to winning the conference as he still sits 6 points back from him on the leaderboard.  The Odds Conference proving to be quite strong this year.  What’s more, this comes while facing tougher competition on average, given Wes and Elm both sit in the Evens Conference.  One thing’s for certain, Caruso owes Barbs a beer for his efforts against TK this week.

Yielding our final bracket for Round 1, we landed somewhere we knew as possible, however improbable, yet here we are and the puck has dropped.  Let’s take a look at our post season lineup.

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6th Seed: 10 PM Sleeper Picks

Barbs finished the season with 207 points, a paltry .518 winning percentage, the bubble boy being Evan finishing the season .500.  It was enough however to enter the post season in the final wildcard spot.  In the past 3 weeks, Barbs was 9th in the Power Rankings with a severe lack of offensive production, operating 16% below his average.  Given he sold at the deadline, the postseason and ending Evan’s season prematurely is all juice however.  His hopes of going the distance are small, but not outside of reasoning the possibility of him ruining more owners’ seasons in the coming weeks.

5th Seed: Jaromiracle on Ice

Doebler finished the season with 231 points (.578 winning percentage).  Zaj had an impressive season, with a 38 Elo pickup on the year showing (5.3 Average Weekly Elo point exchange for the league) for dramatic improvement over last season.  Over the past 3 weeks Zeke middled in performance 6% under league average, hemorrhaging points in skating categories.  He made large pickups the past couple weeks which could bolster his production, but it has of yet to be seen.

4th Seed: Malkin Her Titties

TK walked into the week as the sitting conference lead, losing ground in a moderately disappointing Week 20 performance. He posted 234 points this season (.585 winning percentage) picking up 25 Elo on the year.  In the past 3 weeks, TK produced 14% over his season average and Power Ranked 2nd on the stretch.  Kelly is walking into the playoffs with a loaded gun, although unfortunately called to action a week earlier than anticipated.  “You get out of my face or I’m gonna roundhouse your ass”, exclaimed TK’s PR rep during our touch base on Thursday regarding comments of losing the first round bye.  According to the Elo approximation, this is a .501/.499 matchup outcome this week.  A far cry from a week off, but a silver lining in Shitty Predictor calling for an 8-2 victory for TK and the sweater meat affiliates.

3rd Seed: Puck Hockey Puns

Jim had an amazing season this year, posting 241 points (.603 winning percentage), picking up 61 Elo points on the year, the most improved owner over the prior season.  Jim had an impressive 8 week win streak, followed by a 5 game no-lose streak mid-season and he finished the season Power Ranked 3rd over the past 3 weeks.  Jim finds himself in Round 1 despite posting the second highest point total, as he sits behind a behemoth in Lantz, but given his momentum and matching up against a wounded Barbs, he’s a .582/.418 favorite before adjusting for recency bias.

2nd Seed: Better Than Bettman – 1st Round Bye

Caruso had a season of turmoil that ended in a bang.  He posted 235 point (.588 winning percentage) picking up 30 Elo points on the year.  In the last 3 weeks, his 4th Power Ranked performance was enough to bolster him to a first round by, 1 point ahead of TK, performing 5% over his season average capping off the year with a 4 week win streak after dropping to the 6th seed in Week 16.  More than content to take the week off, he can look forward to the second round while truing up his lineup.

1st Seed: Turd Ferguson – 1st Round Bye

What can be said about Lantz that hasn’t been said since the formation of this league?  Lantz posted 248 points this season (.620 winning percentage).  Coming into the season with a 25 Elo point buffer between him and second place, he somehow found a way to improve another 20 points on the year, again finishing in the 1 spot and a 30 point buffer on second.  He somehow found a way to be even more dominant; Lantz lost only 3 weeks this season with early losses to Doebler and Rad, and TK.  In the past 3 weeks, he’s power ranked 1 overall, with a 2nd rated Skating Corp (1st Offensive) and 1st Goaltending Corp.  Given Lantz’s comment earlier, it’s evident he’s not sweating the playoffs and nor should he.  He is the clear favorite to take The Krut home this year, and it’s going to take some serious effort to shake him.

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Post Season Reminders

Given we’re in the midst of the post season (yeah I know this is coming out midweek and I’m being deliberately ignorant to current events), I wanted to bring attention to some playoff specific rules we currently have set.  If anyone has issues with these, please bring them up in conversation and we can add them to the docket for issues to be discussed in the offseason.

  • Playoff Tie-Breaker: Best Regular Season Record vs Opponent Wins

    • I know we are all pretty unhappy with this outcome, unfortunately the last time we tried to change this, there was not an abundance of options to choose from and this was deemed the least evil of the litter

  • Playoff Reseeding: No

    • This was voted on 2 years ago, and we ultimately decided not to reseed in playoffs.  I think this year you’re seeing the scenario where Jim is truly receiving the shaft as he did not earn a first round bye, even though he was a top 2 producer in the league, in a stronger conference.  If he does in fact defeat Barbieri this week, he’s rewarded with the opportunity to match up against Lantz for $100, which truly could be the real championship game as they are both heavy favorites over anyone in the opposite conference.  We’ll see how the cards fall, but I’d be interested to see how you all feel about this.  Jim has already offered his protests.  I think it’s worth discussing.

  • No FA/Waiver Pickups for Non-Playoff Teams

    • I looked into this a bit more and there is in fact a commissioner feature to freeze rosters by team.  I have gone and done that so there won’t be any “accidental” manipulation of the FA during the post season.  If you have any questions, forward them my way.  Otherwise, I’ll unfreeze the rosters the day the playoffs end.

Again, if you guys have any questions regarding the rules, hit me up and I’ll research if I don’t have the answer on hand.  Thank to everyone that did not make the playoffs; get some rest, enjoy the playoffs, and be on the lookout for a League Communication sometime after the NHL season.  Good luck to everyone that did make the playoffs; the pursuit of The Krut moves forward.

GL;HF