Alright everyone, so I got a little lazy during the holidays; and I’m going to continue being lazy this week by giving you an abridged summary of the last three weeks with some highlights.
Before I dive into the standings, please note, the trade deadline is Thursday, February 21st and lands halfway through week 19, 10 days shy of playoffs. I believe this is the same setting we had last year and we did not alter it to move in line with the shortening of the season. I don’t want to move it now, but I think it’d be a decent point of discussion for next year and I’ll be noting to bring it up in the offseason.
Looking at the overall standings, there are 3 major groupings taking form.
Probable Sellers:
Evan, after having an early season of turmoil bouncing all over the performance chart, has ultimately decided to become consistently subpar, with an average power ranking of 9 across the last three weeks. His goaltending being the pain point, as he managed to post only 4 wins in the last three weeks with a .898 in that same timespan. 22 points out of a playoff spot with 7 weeks remaining is quite the hill to climb. Although he’s temporarily shed his “will he, won’t he” persona, Evan performed 13% under his league average and I wouldn’t expect that to last. Watch out for him to ruin someone’s season.
Draper, just barely outpacing Aloe, is sitting 21 points out of a playoff spot. The last time we took a deeper look at draper, he was merely 20 points out of a playoff spot with 10 weeks remaining. Given his inherited team with a weak constitution, he should probably entertain offers as he looks forward to the following season, especially given he has the hardest schedule through the rest of the season, still to see another run in with TK, Jim, Jason, and Rad.
Jelm, homie. Although sitting in a cool 9th place, Elm is still stationed 19 points out of the bubble. I decided to dig more into his squad to understand what the malfunction could be, to find a mere 6 Moves completed on the year. Not to say this is the driving force behind performance, although I believe it is, however the closest bubble player in Lantz has 46 moves on the year. Not unlike a good portion of the league, Elm has been subject to goaltending woes, with save totals less than 100 in 2 of the last 3 weeks, with skaters performing consistently in the upper third of competitors, just not able to compensate.
Bubble Boys:
Lantz has honestly become my subject of interest this year. Although tied with Barbs, 4 points out of a playoff spot, they each sport a power ranking of 1 and 2 respectively. Save percentage and +/- being his only true weaknesses, I find it surprising he hasn’t been able to lift himself to relevance. That said, he performed 15% under his average performance the last three week, still posting 2 marginal wins. Not even down, certainly not out. Lantz has my money to pull it out and make the playoffs. The question being, is he strong enough to make a run.
Barbs, par for the course, can’t seem to catch a break. Similar to Lantz’s power situation, Barbs had a bad string of weeks, however managed to split the last two weeks 5-5 against Jim and Rad, no slouches. If you haven’t given his team a glance, you should. Especially at his goaltending corp of Gibson, Fleury, Rittich and Hutchinson for the number one goaltending corp, and it’s not even close. He posts an average of 190 Saves per week with a .918 Save Percentage through the year. That’s where the fun stops however. Short of his body bangers posting ridiculous hit totals, his skating categories are on or below average this year. Could he recover and make a run with the proper pickup? It’d have to be a hefty piece in my opinion. Possibly relinquishing some of those prized goaltenders. He can’t keep them all, and at the very least, there will be 3 tasty net minders to pick up in the draft.
Doebler has been a pleasant surprise this year. The Jagz tribute has proven a few times this season he deserves to be in the playoff conversation with big wins over TK in Week 11 (7-3) and… that’s it actually. Don’t let me pull the veil over your eyes however, Zark has the number 1 rated offense in the league this year, hampered only by his +/-, Hits, and Blocks. In fact, I’d go as far as to say if he was able to compensate even marginally in those areas, I think he’s the scariest team in the league. He has the Season high for Goals, Assists, PPP, and Saves, and has been tickling those totals consistently throughout the year. I don’t expect him to ruin anyone’s season, but with a few clutch pickups, Dobby is primed to dethrone a conference leader and relegate them to the masses. Keep an eye on your tins. Zarg sits directly on the bubble; sounds sexual, but idk.
Caruso, feels weird by referencing himself in the third person but continues to do it anyway for optics. Tom, as in seasons past, can’t seem to find his identity. Each season positioned on the bubble as we enter the fourth quarter of the season, he neither looks poised to make a move or to drop out but rather seems destined for mediocrity, with shining moments only in decent Goal and Shot production. Again, he will need to decide whether to make a move and try to go for a run or sell off and look towards the new season. In the past two seasons, he bought and lost in the conference finals. Maybe he’ll switch it up this year. Tom is currently sitting 1 point over Doebler with TK, Jim, and Rad on the schedule ahead. This week’s matchup against Wes could be the false hope he needs to make a terrible decision prior to the deadline.
Radical, King of the Bubblonians, is currently sitting 2 points above danger yet only 6 points shy of one SakoPath. Rad, as is tradition, continues to post stellar shooting categories, and even managed to have a positive +/-, quite the rarity for high scoring teams. His sacrifice in Hits and Blocks is noted, however he also seems to lack a bit of goaltending, with number just shy of average. While performing 12% under his season performance over the last three weeks, Rad still managed to pull a 7-3 win against Elm and 6-4 against Evan, seemingly rolling poorly at the right time. By now everyone should be aware of the trade between Josh and Baric, seeing Jim pick up one Sidney J. while sending Josi and a 7th rounder to Rad. I have to admit, I’m a bit perplexed. There’s nothing inherently wrong with this trade, but the timing is a bit befuddling. Rad seems willing to give up a portion of his scoring production to snag a very high draft pick in the coming season. This comes at a time where he jumped 4 spots in the rankings. Does he have an Ace in the hole, or is he planning for his future. One thing is for certain, he’s gotten out ahead of the trade deadline to seize the opportunity and turn gold into cash. It’s gotta be painful to let go of generational talent, thankfully he has one McDoogle and Petterererson to keep him comfort. Look for Rad to make additional moves or toil as we near the trade deadline.
Buyers:
Without question, Jason has put forward a rather strong season as is evident by his current standings, but with that said, where is he trending. In the last 6 weeks Jason has posted a 25-28-7 record, with his ties keeping him afloat. In fact, a 9-0 victory over Evan and a 8-2 victory over Draper seem to be his only real takes of the year with a season power ranking of 5 placing him just about where he should be in the standings. Jason’s been the recipient of bad tiebreakers in the past. Sitting in 4th with an 8 point cushion, he seems well positioned for a playoff berth. With a couple of moves and a little spit shine, I wouldn’t be surprised if he snakes the conference lead and first round bye from Baric, but he certainly has his work cut out for him.
This truly has been a season of retribution for Jim. As the standings currently lay, Jim is by far the most improved owner this year with by far the largest Elo improvement of the season; he’s injected himself in to the conversation, and with force. In the last 3 weeks, he saw his 8 week winning streak brought to an end by, your very own, Adoebler. He followed up his defeat by tumbling again to Sako, and ultimately tying Barbs in Week 13. Even with his short stint of disappointment, Jim performed nearly on average with his season totals the past three weeks. This prompted me to look further and find that it was not his performance that faltered, but rather he ran into high performers in Jay and B, power ranked 2nd and 1st in their respective weeks. Even his matchup against Doebler, he outperformed him, yet not in the correct categories with a fair amount of wasted stat gain. After speaking with him, I know he’s anxious to grip the ledge that is a first round bye and Jason at his heels, however his future continues to be bright with future matchups against Wes and Evan to round out the end of his season. To make matters more interesting, those two matchups sandwich his meeting with TK, quite possibly Jason’s only hope of taking the conference. Jim made quite the pickup from Rad, purchasing Crosby for a decent amount of his future. Will Jim’s all-star skating stats be able to compensate for his lack of goaltending?
A League of their Own:
TK has undeniably had a pretty stellar season. His only loss this season? 3-7 to James Baric. As the story lines begin to write themselves, I plopped TK into a category all his own. He’s has a 19 point cushion on the bubble, 8 points over second place, coming off GWBye Week. The last three week saw him improve 43 points and 2 spots in the standings to be the defacto front runner. I’d say he has a bullseye on his back, but more aptly someone has placed a cowbell around his neck to warn of his raging bull demeanor. What’s more perplexing is his stats aren’t out of control, he seems to be hitting big when he needs it, in lockstep with his opponents. Not always amazing, but always better, he seems to always be precise, even if his accuracy needs work. His season power ranking of 9 is hollow, and should be more indicative of his prowess as a manager, not leaning on the performance of his players so much as manipulating them to his will with marginal victories, making every point count. I honestly don’t know what to think. It should also be noted that in the last three weeks, an 8-2, 6-3, and 7-3 run proved TK to eclipse both Jason and Lantz to take the top Elo spot in the league. He faces off against Evan this week, then bellows into the mid-tier machine in the back quarter of the season. I have no reason to believe he’ll have issue. For that matter, I’m not sure I’d even expect a move out of him near the deadline. Hats off to a season well done, thus far.