Week 16-19

Got away from me…

4 Weeks is too long between updates!  Week 16 started on 1/21, the week of the All Star Break.  For time, I’m going to touch on performances and position over that stretch rather than individual matchups.  If you feel you performed well in one particular week, feel free to pat yourself on the back.  With that said, the playoff picture has taken form, lots of trades, teams have been eliminated from contention, and playoffs have started early for some.  Let’s dive in.

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Eliminated

Believe it or not, only 3 teams have been mathematically eliminated this season.  The bottom two, Wes and Elm, had no change in position over the timespan.  I’ve spoken to Wes, and he asked me to extend an apology to you guys for his participation this season.  He relayed that he did think about returning later in the season but thought better of it to not potentially screw someone late in the year.  As we spoke about months ago, Wes’s dues were waived this year (he tried to pay me multiple times).  He said he’s excited to play next season.

Elm on the other hand contacted me last week and has in fact decided to relinquish his team.  I’m not sure how many of you know, but Elm recently got a new job back in Pittsburgh but travels 95% of the time for work and his fiancé.  He’s been too busy and hasn’t made it a priority.  I spoke with a few of you about this and we are currently looking for another owner, with a couple heads in mind.  Please send me anyone you believe would be a good fit.  I’m going to compile a list and touch on it at a later date.  As of right now, consider anyone on Elm’s team frozen pending a new owner.

The most recent team eliminated, Radical finished the span falling 2 slots to 10th in the league, 23 points out of the bubble.  Jersh was very active at the deadline; involved in 3 trades this year, shipping: Crosby, Kessel, Binnington, a 10th, 12th, 13th, and 16th, for return: Lundqvist, Klingberg, a 7th, two 8ths, and a 12th.  This is simultaneously the most anyone’s traded in a season as well as tried to move up the draft order.  Look to him as a litmus test selling for next season.  I suspect it will be of large impact.  Rad got significantly younger this year and was able to put together a nice core that could last a while.  Posturing at its finest.

 

All But Out

Given the nature of our scoring system, 20 point pickups being possible, Jason and Draper are not yet mathematically eliminated, but hope is not advised.  Draper picked up 1 spot in the standings over the span and was not active at the deadline.  This being his first season in our league, it was truly trial by fire from the draft forward.  He took some lumps, but wasn’t discouraged and is looking forward to next season.  Draper took 47/80 points during this stretch and has been active consistently trying to win through the end of the season.  Not only a hats off to him, but I’d also like to note that this is exactly what we’re looking for in a head to fill Elm’s shoes. 

 Jason finds himself in in 8th, 14 points out of the bubble, picking up 24/80 points.  Sako, who was in 1st place 10 weeks ago, had an incredibly rough mid-season run winning just 1 week in the last 12.  That 6-3 win against Elm, dropping 2-8 in the last two weeks.  In the last 4 weeks, Jay did see his skaters’ production fall off hard, losing 1/5th of his average Goal production and 1/4th of his average Assist production, consistently power ranked 10th in each of those weeks.  This directly affected this PPP production, while simultaneously running into goaltending woes.  With no movements at the deadline, Jay seems confident enough in his core to put field a serviceable team next season, but has definitely packed it in.

 

On the Bubble

The bubble is tight, with Evan sitting uncomfortably 1 point in front Barbs.

B fell 2 slots to 7th over the stretch, taking 34/80 points and finishing with a 1-9 L to Doebler.  With the writing on the wall, Z sold at the deadline sending Landeskog and a 9th to Caruso for a fresh off IR Ehlers and a 3rd.  Although a seller, the stage is set for Barbs to ruin Evan’s previously ruined and now not ruined season.  That same span saw Evan leap 3 places in the standings landing in 6th, the first time he’s been in a playoff position all year.  Although ragged on earlier in the season for his inconsistent performance, Evan started the season 2-17-1 and ate away at his deficit to finish last week 8 wins over 500.  He was able to take 58/80 points in that time, second only to Lantz’s 67 (holy shit).  The road to the playoffs is not paved for either of these two however as Evan meets Jim and Barbs meets TK in Week 20 making this a pseudo playoff game for both.  These are the two matchups to watch this week, as of right now, neither’s looking great.  At this rate, I’m not sure taking the seed can be considered a win.  Both need to improve if they want a long playoff run.

 

Clinched Berth

Lantz, TK, Jim, Doebs, and Caruso have all clinched a playoff berth this season, and in that order.  Caruso, slotted in 5th, has a 21 point buffer on Evan.  An 11 point span covers the top 5 slots, 6 points the largest cushion being held by Lantz sitting comfortably in 1st.  Lantz scooped a whoping 84% of possible points in the last 4 weeks, 17 points more than his nearest conference neighbor launching him 4 positions in the standings to the throne.

Although TK looks to take the top spot, 6 points shy of Lantz, he has more pressing concerns in Doebler, 4 points back and coming off a 9-1 Victory, and Caruso, 5 points back and mortgaging a keeper slot next year to pick up heavy guns.  Can TK take enough points from Barbs for peace of mind?

With 2nd place intangible for Jim, he eyeballs Lantz with 7 points to carve.  Given that’s quite a large gap for a Lantz trending upward, consideration for round 1 posturing comes to mind.  Jim picked up 50/80 over the span, shaded by wins large wins against Rad and Wes.  If all holds true, does Jim stand a better chance against a risking Evan or two teams that just retooled?  I smell a trap.  On the other hand, Barbs could limp into 6th handing Jim a quasi bye.  Regardless, he’s comfortably in position and only good can come in Week 20.

Doebler and Caruso both bought at the deadline.  Doebler finding meat in Kessel and Josi from Rad, Caruso picking up a top 5 skater Landeskog with a large price.  Jagz ended Week 16 as the conference leader, but found hard times against Rad and Caruso before bouncing back in a 9-1 victory over a Barbs.  Caruso seems content to sit in a lower wildcard spot, but will his late acquisition make an impact? Zaj and Krut picked up 48 and 45 points respectively, and are definitely ranked mid-tier.  One of them needs to pull out a large win this week, or it seems they’ve found their Round 1 playoff matchup.  Should be a barn burner, the memes will be entertaining.

Last week of the season yinz, finish strong,